So it begins. Chelgate has joined the blogosphere.

I’m writing this on board Eurostar,  after a quick visit to our Brussels office, where the mood seems more upbeat and assertive than I can remember  for some time.    Now that the Irish have fallen into line over the Lisbon Treaty, and indications are that the Czechs will do the same, it really seems that ratification will be more or less inevitable.   And that, of course,   poses a sticky problem for the Tories. What becomes of David Cameron’s “cast iron guarantee” of a referendum?

I’d guess that the Tories will have to back-pedal on the pledge.  Holding a referendum once the treaty is ratified would make very little sense.  The horse will have bolted, the stable door will hang ajar.

Of course,  in a  real world of common sense and honest dealing,  it should be possible for the Tories to adapt their position to the changed reality.  If you promise a patient a life - saving operation, but they die before  reaching the operating table,  you’re hardly going to plough ahead with the surgery.

And this patient’s certainly dead. The debate is over. If the treaty is ratified, then the referendum would be little more than a pointless post mortem. The guarantee simply wouldn’t apply any more, in that real world of common sense and honest dealing.

But, of course, this is not the world of British politics . Chances are that if the Tories do attempt to re-cast their cast iron guarantee,  angry fingers will be pointed across the floor of the House, cries of “turncoat” will fill the air (and perhaps not just from the Labour benches).  If Gordon Brown is quick on his feet, he should be able to land a few painful blows below the Cameron beltline. Weak, naive, fickle and inconstant. It’s easy to imagine the epidemic of epithets.

But while none of this would be really justified, and of course responsible Opposition adjusts its policies in light of events, the Tories also have themselves to blame. A basic rule of issues management is that you  never make promises you mightn’t be able to keep. Good intentions alone are not enough.  The public, usually, doesn’t give a fig for your intentions.  It’s what you do that counts. In this case, David Cameron not only made the promise, but he gilded it and preserved it in the golden language of the soundbite.  “A cast iron guarantee”. A phrase like that was never going to  slip gently into obscurity.

But the Tory team are pretty astute.  I wouldn’t expect them to wait for the Czech ratification before they redefine their position.   Nor would I expect them simply to announce a change of policy.   They should probably  devote the next few weeks to a vigorous assault on Labour, pointing out that ratification will kill the last chance for the British people to have their say; that it  will deny the British people the chance of the referendum which every major party has promised them; that if the chance of a referendum dies, it is the Labour party that has killed it.   Before they actually announce a change of position, they should be re-defining the landscape of the debate. They need to build common acceptance that ratification changes everything, that if the hoped of a referendum is to be denied to the British people, it is because Labour has killed it, not because the Tories have abandoned it.

If they do prepare the ground this way, then they should be able to float a new policy for post-ratification, without appearing to be performing a contorted u-turn.  But if they leave it too late, or fail to shape the debate over the next few weeks, I would expect Labour to have a happy field day with David Cameron’s “cast iron guarantee”.

It’s our 21st

It is actually 21 years this month since Chelgate opened for business.  During that time, we have seen a revolution in our profession.  The techniques, the resources, the very definition of our role have all changed beyond measure.  Above all, the Internet has re-written the rules of good public relations and public affairs practice .  I’ll be returning to these changes in later blogs.  But perhaps what’s most important is not to look back, but to look ahead.  The pace of change is accelerating, and new forces are reshaping the way that people interact with the world around them -  with government, with business and with each other.  Even months ago it would have been hard to forecast the impact of Twitter on public life. In just the last few days we have seen how the new phenomenon of the “Twitterstorm” had the power  to tear the blindfold and gag off  Trafigura’s watertight  legal injunction on the Guardian. This must be stirring wild surmise in the hearts of lawyers and media relations professionals the world over.  What barriers are safe?  What can’t be done?  At Chelgate, our task must be to ensure not just that we understand how to protect and promote our clients’ interests in this altered world.  We must understand the changing possibilities for our business, looking ahead constantly, and never, for one instant, thinking that what worked yesterday will probably work just as well tomorrow.

The months and years ahead should be an exhilarating journey for our profession. Enjoy the ride with us.  Stay in touch with the blog.

Terence Fane-Saunders